The European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) report predicts that Italy is going to be the first country where renewable energy technology will become more competitive than fossil fuels. In fact, Italy will be Europes trail-blazer for cost-competitive PV, with an average 100kW commercial rooftop system on track to reach dynamic grid-parity (DGP) as soon as 2013. EPIA has conducted the comparative analysis on 5 markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom) .
The study demonstrates that because of different solar irradiance levels from South to North in the largest European countries, and in different market segments, dynamic grid parity will not happen at exactly the same time everywhere in Europe. Given the possible decline in generation cost, dynamic grid parity could be achieved as early as 2013 in Italy in the commercial segment and then it will spread all across the continent in the different market segments.
EPIA president Ingmar Wilhelm said that PV is already cheaper than people think and is set to get cheaper. The cost of modules will go down about 50% by 2020, he added, because of economies of scale and improvements in technology although the report also predicts a rise in the cost of traditional power sources such as coal and gas over the same period.